Real Estate in San Mateo County: Two Market Trends

The latest data on real estate in San Mateo County is wild, but it is not telling one simple story. Luxury home sales are accelerating, well-prepared single-family homes are receiving multiple offers, and three quarters of house sales are closing above asking price. At the very same time, condo inventory has nearly doubled and condo pricing is under real pressure.

That means we are not dealing with one market. We are dealing with two. Whether the conditions favor us depends heavily on what we own, what we want to buy, and where we are shopping on the Peninsula.

The big headline is that sales of homes priced above $5 million rose 27% year over year in March 2026. That is remarkable when we consider the interest-rate environment, inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, and broader uncertainty. The higher end of real estate in San Mateo County has not merely held up. It has accelerated.

Real Estate in San Mateo County: Two Markets
Luxury Sales Near 2022 Levels
Demand Continues to Outpace Supply
Median Home Prices Keep Rising
Why Overbidding Is Still Common
How Fast Homes Are Selling
Why It's Still a Seller's Market
Why Condos Are the Exception
San Francisco vs. San Mateo County
The Bottom Line for Buyers and Sellers
FAQs About Real Estate in San Mateo County

Real Estate in San Mateo County: Two Markets

The single-family home market remains extremely competitive. Demand is strong across price points, from buyers in the $1.5 million range all the way into the $5 million, $7 million, and $9 million range. At the same time, condos are operating under a very different set of rules.

This split matters because broad countywide headlines can be misleading. Saying that real estate in San Mateo County is hot is generally true for houses, especially appealing homes on desirable streets. But it is not a useful conclusion for every property type.

Single-family homes: Strong demand, fast sales, frequent overbidding, and very limited supply.
Luxury homes: Sales above $5 million rose 27% year over year in March.
Townhomes: Moving faster than condos, with an average 17 days on market through March.
Condos: More listings, softer demand, and weaker short-term price trends.

Real estate is local, especially here. Burlingame may only have roughly 10 to 15 home sales in a typical month. Hillsborough had around 10 monthly sales last year. Once we narrow the search to a specific price range, neighborhood, lot type, school area, or street quality, we may be looking at only a handful of relevant homes.

That is why the best homes can still become intensely competitive even when there appears to be more inventory in the county overall. If we are looking for the best streets, strongest locations, and truly turnkey properties, we should expect competition.

Luxury Sales Near 2022 Levels

For homes priced at $5 million and above, March 2026 sales were up 27% compared with March of the previous year. Seasonal activity always matters. Spring usually brings more listings and more closed sales, summer can slow down, fall picks up again, and midwinter tends to be the quietest period.

Even after accounting for that normal rhythm, the current luxury sales volume stands out. March 2026 is approaching the activity levels seen in 2022, despite interest rates now being roughly double where they were in March 2022.

That tells us buyer demand at the top end of real estate in San Mateo County is substantial. Stock market strength, technology growth, and the concentration of high-income employment across the Peninsula all play into the buyer pool. We are also seeing more conversations with buyers who anticipate increased liquidity from career changes, new compensation packages, or future IPO activity.

Not everyone has that profile, obviously. But it is a meaningful source of demand, and it helps explain why higher-end homes are still moving despite rates that would normally slow the market more dramatically.

What Luxury Sellers Should Do

For owners considering a sale, the next few months are a compelling listing window. Spring brings active buyers and more urgency around homes that are thoughtfully prepared, positioned correctly, and presented at a high level.

That does not mean every luxury home will sell itself. Presentation, pricing, disclosures, landscaping, staging, photography, and the overall launch strategy still matter. But the underlying demand is clearly there for the right home.

What Luxury Buyers Should Do

Patience is still important, but hesitation has a cost when the right property appears. If a compelling home comes on the market Monday or Tuesday, waiting until the weekend can burn several valuable days. Those days matter for private inspections, contractor input, disclosure review, financing coordination, and developing an offer strategy.

We do not need to race blindly. We do need to be prepared enough to move quickly when the home is genuinely right.

Demand Continues to Outpace Supply

New listings in real estate in San Mateo County increased about 4% over the prior year. That sounds healthy. However, sales volume rose 7% over the same period. Demand is growing faster than supply.

As of early April, active inventory was rising but remained slightly below the previous year’s pace. There were about 821 homes for sale, which is more inventory than the market had in April 2024, when there were roughly 572 active listings. Yet prices are still rising because additional supply is being absorbed.

Normally, a meaningful increase in inventory would flatten or soften prices. Here, we are seeing more choices alongside even stronger buyer demand. That is the setup for continued price pressure, particularly for houses.

The practical takeaway is simple. More listings do not automatically mean a buyer-friendly market. In real estate in San Mateo County, we have to compare the pace of new supply with the pace of actual demand.

Median Home Prices Keep Rising

Through the end of the first quarter, the median home price in San Mateo County reached $2,062,500, up approximately 3% year over year. Prices often rise through the spring, level out in summer, and then move according to the fall market. So seasonality is part of the story, but the longer trend remains slow and steady appreciation.

The long-term price chart makes the broader direction clear. There are periods of movement up and down, and there have certainly been market corrections, but over decades California real estate has generally followed an upward path.

We should also recognize the human context behind these numbers. San Mateo County has extraordinary wealth and an exceptional quality of life, but it also has significant inequality. Second Harvest Food Bank has reported that 40% of people living in the county experience some form of food insecurity. A strong market does not mean that every household is experiencing the same economy.

Why Overbidding Is Still Common

In March, 67% of all sales in real estate in San Mateo County closed above asking price. When we isolate single-family homes, that number rose to 74%.

That does not mean every home should be listed at any number and expected to soar. It means that list price must be interpreted in context. Buyers should study comparable sales, recent pending activity, condition, street quality, and the listing strategy before deciding what a home is likely to command.

If a house is listed at $2.4 million and the relevant data supports a value around $2.6 million to $2.7 million, submitting an offer just above list price is probably not putting us in position to win. It may increase the offer count, but it may not be competitive.

We do not need five or ten “practice offers” to understand the market. With the right preparation, accurate pricing guidance, and a clear strategy, we should be able to write a small number of serious, well-informed offers.

How Fast Homes Are Selling

Average days on market through the end of March were 21 days across the county. The breakdown tells the story:

Houses averaged 19 days.
Townhomes averaged 17 days.
Condos averaged 29 days.

In practice, many well-positioned house listings are moving even faster. A typical launch period may be only seven to 10 days before offers are reviewed. That is great for sellers and challenging for buyers, but it is manageable when we are realistic about the timeline.

For buyers in real estate in San Mateo County, the goal is not to rush into the wrong house. The goal is to have financing, decision-making, inspections, and market knowledge organized before the right property appears.

Why It's Still a Seller's Market

Months supply of inventory, often shortened to MSI, answers a simple question: if no new listings came on the market, how long would it take to sell the homes currently available?

San Mateo County is sitting at about 1.6 months of supply. That is extremely low.

Less than three months generally indicates a seller’s market.
Three to six months is generally considered balanced or neutral.
More than six months generally indicates a buyer’s market.

At 1.6 months, the structure of real estate in San Mateo County strongly favors sellers of houses. There simply are not enough homes for the buyers who want them.

For buyers waiting for a major shift, the data does not support expecting a different market in the next quarter or two. A better approach is to remain patient about the specific home, while becoming strategic about where, when, and how we buy.

Why Condos Are the Exception

Now for the other market. Active condo inventory across San Mateo and Santa Clara counties rose 95% from March 2025 to March 2026. In other words, inventory nearly doubled while the number of properties going pending remained relatively flat.

That is very different from the house market. More condo supply without a comparable increase in sales means buyers have more choices and sellers face much more competition.

Condo prices reflect that pressure. Over the last five years, San Mateo County condo pricing is down around 1%. Compared with the previous year, the median condo price is down approximately 8%.

For condo owners in real estate in San Mateo County, pricing strategy and presentation have never mattered more. The market is not forgiving of aspirational pricing, weak marketing, or a property that is not positioned clearly against competing inventory.

For condo buyers, this is a much more favorable environment. We can be deliberate, compare alternatives, negotiate thoughtfully, and avoid assuming that a condo will necessarily appreciate in the short term. Condos can still be the right purchase for lifestyle, location, family needs, or convenience. We simply should not buy solely on the expectation of quick appreciation.

San Francisco vs. San Mateo County

It is also worth separating the San Francisco market from the Peninsula condo discussion. Some San Francisco neighborhoods are showing dramatically different results, including examples of homes in Noe Valley that sold around $2.5 million a year ago and are now selling closer to $4 million.

That does not mean every segment of San Francisco real estate is identical, just as not every part of real estate in San Mateo County behaves the same way. Property type, neighborhood, condition, pricing, and buyer profile all matter.

The Bottom Line for Buyers and Sellers

The market is strong, but the right strategy depends on which side of the split we are on.

For House Sellers

Buyer demand is strong and inventory remains constrained.
Late January through late May is typically an excellent listing window.
Preparation and positioning still determine whether a home achieves the best possible result.

For House Buyers

Be patient for the right home, then move quickly.
Do not assume the asking price represents the likely sale price.
Use current comparable sales to form an offer strategy before writing.

For Condo Sellers

Competing inventory is materially higher than last year.
Pricing and presentation need to be precise.
We need to be realistic about the property’s position in the current market.

For Condo Buyers

More supply creates more leverage and more options.
Take the time to compare buildings, HOA considerations, and alternatives.
Buy for the right lifestyle and long-term fit, not for assumed short-term appreciation.

Thinking about relocating to San Mateo County or the Peninsula? Whether you're buying your first home, upgrading, downsizing, or relocating for work, having local guidance can make all the difference. We'll help you understand the unique dynamics of each neighborhood, compare your options, and build a strategy that fits your goals. Schedule a consultation to discuss your relocation plans, or email hello@burlingameproperties.com to start planning your move with confidence.

FAQs About Real Estate in San Mateo County

Is real estate in San Mateo County a seller’s market?

For single-family homes, yes. With approximately 1.6 months of supply, the county is firmly in seller’s-market territory. Houses are averaging 19 days on market, and 74% of single-family home sales in March closed above asking price.

Why are condos different from houses right now?

Condo inventory across San Mateo and Santa Clara counties increased 95% year over year while pending sales remained relatively flat. That imbalance gives condo buyers more choice and puts greater pressure on sellers.

Are luxury homes still selling in San Mateo County?

Yes. Sales above $5 million increased 27% year over year in March 2026, approaching activity levels last seen in 2022 despite today’s higher interest rates.

Should buyers wait for prices to come down?

For houses, the current supply and demand data does not point to an imminent market shift. A more productive approach is to stay patient for the right property while being fully ready to act when it appears.

The most important thing is to avoid treating real estate in San Mateo County as one uniform market. Houses and condos are behaving differently. Luxury demand is strong. Inventory is limited for the properties buyers want most. And the best decisions will come from understanding the specific neighborhood, property type, price point, and buyer pool involved.

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